Oil’s Wild Ride: From $60 to $119 and Back to $100 in Just Weeks

The oil market has experienced a wild ride in recent weeks, soaring from around $60 a barrel at the start of the year to a peak of $119 before settling back near $98 on Thursday — a level that itself would have seemed extraordinary just months ago. The price swings reflect both the severity of the supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict and the market’s sensitivity to every diplomatic signal and military development. There is little historical precedent for the speed of the price moves seen since fighting began.
The war, which erupted on February 28, has closed the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic and prompted Iran to strike a growing list of energy targets across the region. Thursday’s attacks included strikes on merchant ships, oil export terminals, and fuel storage facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, and Oman. The Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree was hit near the strait, with three crew members reported trapped.
Brent crude gained 9% intraday Thursday to touch $100.29 before settling around $98. The earlier peak of $119 came amid intense fighting, while the subsequent retreat followed conflicting remarks from President Trump about the war’s status. West Texas Intermediate followed a similar trajectory, rising 8.6% Thursday to $94.75 a barrel.
The IEA’s 32 member nations released a combined 400 million barrels of emergency crude in an unprecedented coordinated action. The US separately released 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Iran’s military escalated rhetoric alongside its military campaign, warning that oil could hit $200 if regional instability continues.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Asian equities fell, and European gas prices gained 7.7%.