The Philippine peso reached an unprecedented low on Monday, coinciding with a downturn in the stock market. This shift is attributed to heightened sensitivity among investors and traders to both global and domestic uncertainties. The peso depreciated by 2.9 centavos, settling at P61.75 against the US dollar, down from the previous all-time low of P61.721 on Friday. Meanwhile, the Philippine Stock Market index (PSEi) declined by 35.25 points or 0.59 percent, closing at 5,941.52.
According to market analysts, the peso has started responding more to market sentiment rather than traditional economic fundamentals. A trader noted that the strength of the dollar was a significant factor, but the day’s movements also highlighted increased demand for safe-haven assets and dollar purchases linked to rising oil prices. The trader emphasized that market sentiment is increasingly sensitive to uncertainties within the country, and in the current market environment, positioning and momentum can lead to exaggerated movements, especially when liquidity is thin.
With the peso’s near-term outlook leaning towards continued weakening, a rate of P62 to the dollar is now within psychological reach, though sharp fluctuations in both directions remain possible. The peso’s decline comes as it joins the ranks of the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee, both of which have also hit record lows amid rising oil prices and global yields, which have strengthened the dollar and put pressure on oil-importing nations. The rupiah experienced its largest intraday percentage decline since April 2025, falling 1.16 percent to 17,665 per dollar, while the rupee reached a historic low of 96.303 per dollar, continuing its downward trend since tensions in Iran spurred oil prices higher in February.
Michael Wan, an analyst at MUFG, pointed out that the stronger dollar has significantly impacted emerging Asian market currencies, with the rupee and peso suffering from the dual pressures of increased oil prices and domestic economic challenges affecting yield-sensitive currencies like the rupiah. Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial Inc., highlighted that investors are increasingly cautious due to resurfacing concerns about conflict in the Middle East, exacerbated by recent threats from former President Trump towards Iran.
Amidst these conditions, Luis Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp., observed that investor interest remains subdued as they await clearer market catalysts. The combination of rising global crude oil prices and the peso’s ongoing weakness continues to dampen market sentiment. Trading activity during the day was notably sluggish, with net value turnover dropping to P3.85 billion, significantly below the year-to-date average, indicating persistent investor hesitation. Foreign funds also remained mostly inactive, with net outflows amounting to P225.76 million. The market saw a negative breadth overall, with 117 stocks declining compared to 65 advancing, while 68 issues remained unchanged, although property stocks showed a modest 0.19 percent gain, and mining and oil sectors led the declines with a 3.4-percent drop.
